CBO Releases Budget Impact Estimate for Better Care Reconciliation Act

CBO released its budget impact estimate for the draft Better Care Reconciliation Act on June 26, 2017.  The report reflects the updated version of the discussion draft released by the Senate Budget Committee on June 26, including the addition of a six month lockout period for individuals purchasing insurance after experiencing a lapse in coverage.  A few of the key conclusions in the report include:


  • CBO estimates the bill would reduce the federal deficit by $321 billion over the next decade, compared to the $  billion in savings it projected under the AHCA in May.
  • In 2018, the number of uninsured individuals would increase by 15 million, eventually rising to an additional 22 million people uninsured by 2026.
  • Federal spending in the Medicaid program would decrease 26% over the next decade and enrollment would decrease by 16 percent, resulting in $772 billion in savings
  • CBO also finds that the nongroup market would be stable under existing law as well as the proposal. Under the BCRA, it predicts that the significant factors supporting market stability include access to premium subsidies; stable funding for the cost sharing reduction payments (CSRs) and additional funding furnished to states and insurers to reduce cost of beneficiaries with high health care expenditures (reinsurance, etc.).