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CBO Releases New Assessment of House’s AHCA

March 24, 2017

McDermott+Consulting

Last night the Congressional Budget Office released a new assessment of the House version of the American Health Care Act (AHCA).

Note that this assessment reflects the versions approved by the three committees, Energy & Commerce, Ways & Means, and Budget, but pre-dates recent discussions in Rules Committee about further changes that might be made to further woo Republican Members. For example, it assumes no change to the Essential Health Benefits package in the individual market.

This report follows an earlier report issued on March 13th before additional amendments were adopted in the House Budget Committee.  Following are a few of the highlights:

  • CBO estimates that the revised version would reduce federal deficits by $150 billion over 10 years (down from $337 billion in the 03-13 estimate). Most of that loss in savings comes from accelerating the effective date for the repeal of most of the ACA taxes from 2018 to 2017.
  • CBO continues to estimate that 14 million more people would be uninsured in 2018 compared to current law, and that 24 million more people would be uninsured by 2026 compared to current law (these estimates are the same as in the 03-13 estimate).
  • CBO seems to be saying that the total Medicaid savings would be about the same as in the 03-13 estimate ($880B over 10 years) because while the increase in inflation adjustments for per capita caps for aged, blind, and disabled enrollees would decrease Medicaid savings, other changes (e.g., providing states the option to make eligibility for Medicaid conditional on satisfying work requirements for certain enrollees allowing states to receive a block grant for certain Medicaid populations) would increase savings.

Read the report in its entirety here.


Access the Health Reform 2.0 Resource Center for additional information related to the American Health Care Act and other health care reform updates.

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